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2017年成都市PM2.5质量浓度与呼吸系统急救人次的关系

PM2.5 and Emergency Calls for Health with Respiratory Diseases in Chengdu in 2017

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  分析2017年成都市大气细颗粒物（particulate matter 2.5，PM2.5）对呼吸系统急救人次的近期影响。
      方法  收集成都市2017年1月1日～12月31日的PM2.5每日24 h质量浓度均值、每日呼吸系统疾病急救人次数、日均气温和相对湿度，采用广义相加时间序列模型，在每日总急救人次数无明显长期趋势的基础上，控制气象因素（气温和气湿）、“星期效应”混杂因素后，分析PM2.5与呼吸系统急救人次的关系。
      结果  成都市2017年因呼吸系统疾病急救呼救共9 309人次，平均每天26人次。日均温度16.6 ℃，日均相对湿度81.2%，全年PM2.5质量浓度均值为53.6 μg/m3。单污染物模型滞后时间效应分析发现，最强效应期为暴露当日,在最强效应期空气中PM2.5质量浓度每升高10 μg/m3，居民因呼吸系统疾病急救风险增加1.26%（95%可信区间：0.56%～1.97%），且PM2.5质量浓度与居民因呼吸系统疾病急救风险几乎呈正向直线关系。双污染物模型分析发现，每日臭氧质量浓度8 h滑动平均值（O3-8h）能够增强PM2.5质量浓度对人群急救风险的效应。
      结论  空气PM2.5污染，可能增加居民因呼吸系统疾病急救的风险。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To determine the association between daily particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) mass and emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases.
      Methods  Semi-parametric generalized additive model was established to determine the association between daily PM2.5 and emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases in 2017 in Chengdu, after adjustments for time trend and variations in the days of the week and weather conditions.
      Results  In 2017, a total of 9,309 emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases were recorded in Chengdu: on average 26 calls a day. Over the year, Chengdu reported a mean PM2.5 mass concentration of 53.6 μg/m3, an average temperature of 16.6 ℃, and an average relative humidity of 81.2%. The single pollutant model with lag time effect showed that a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with an increase of 1.26% ［95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56%-1.97%］ emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases. The exposure-response was almost in a direct line. The dual pollutant model found that O3 8-hour sliding average (O3-8h) enhanced the effect of PM2.5 on emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases.
      Conclusion  Outdoor PM2.5 is a significant predictor of emergency calls for help with respiratory diseases in Chengdu.

     

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