Objective  To evaluate the clinical predictive ability of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring system in laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy (LPD).

  Methods  There were 132 consecutive LPD performed in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from February 2014 to July 2017. The clinical data were retrospective collected, including 12 preoperative physiological variables, 6 operative severity variables, and complications and mortality The postoperative expected mortality and morbidity were calculated by POSSUM and P-POSSUM score, and compared with measured morbidity and mortality. The clinical predictive ability of POSSUM and P-POSSUM system was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and hierarchical analysis.

  Results  The area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.83. The preoperative physiological score (PS) and POSSUM score of the patients with complications were higher, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.01). For the prediction of complications after LPD, the expected value was the most accurate to the measured value when POSSUM score was >0.4-0.6. POSSUM scoring system had no significant difference in predicting the incidence of complications for benign and malignant lesions (P>0.05), with a higher predictive value for malignant tumors. It was valuable in predicting the incidence of complications in male and female, and there was no significant difference in expected value between the sexes. Expected morbidity rate by POSSUM scoring system was 36.6% and measured morbidity rate was 33.3%. The expected and measured morbidities had no significantly differences. The expected mortality was 7.0% and measured mortality rate was 1.5%. The expected and measured mortality had no significantly differences. Expected mortality by P-POSSUM system was 1.6%, the expected and measured mortality had no significantly differences.

  Conclusion  POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring system had high value for predicting LPD postoperative morbidity and mortality of LPD patients.