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成都市预包装非真空冷藏即食熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌定量风险评估

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Prepackaged, Non-Vacuum Sealed, Refrigerated Ready-to-Eat Cooked Meat Products in Chengdu

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的  应用@Risk软件，对成都市预包装非真空短保质期即食熟肉制品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌（Listeria monocytogenes, LM）进行定量风险评估。
    方法  使用前期研究获得的成都市预包装非真空冷藏即食熟肉制品中LM污染监测数据，建立风险评估模型，结合从零售到消费阶段LM在熟肉制品中的生长情况，对不同人群因食用熟肉制品导致LM感染的风险进行定量风险评估。
    结果  成都市每年每百万5~<65岁健康人群通过预包装非真空冷藏熟肉制品导致李斯特菌病的潜在病例数为0.01人〔95%置信区间（confidence interval, CI）：0～1.71×10－2〕，65岁及以上健康人群为0.22人（95%CI：0～2.67×10－1），孕妇为2.88人（95%CI：3.85×10－8～4.35）。根据敏感性分析结果，零售时LM初始污染水平是影响患病率最重要的因素（R=0.25），其他因素依次是零售温度（R=0.08）、零售时长（R=0.07）和每餐消费量（R=0.07）等。
    结论 对于预包装非真空熟肉制品，降低李斯特菌病患病率最主要的措施为控制初始污染水平，要求食品加工厂对加工环境和设备定期清洁和严格消毒，从源头减少LM的污染。零售熟食店应严格控制贮存温度不超过5.0 ℃并按照保质期销售。消费者购买后应尽快食用或置于冷藏条件下贮存、缩短贮存时间，孕妇人群食用前应彻底加热，从而减少李斯特菌病的发生。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To conduct a quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes (LM) in prepackaged, non-vacuum sealed, short shelf-life, ready-to-eat meat products in Chengdu using the @Risk software.
    Methods  Based on monitoring data of LM contamination in pre-packaged, non-vacuum sealed, refrigerated ready-to-eat meat products in Chengdu obtained from a previous study, a risk assessment model was established. The risk of LM infection caused by consuming cooked meat products in different groups of people was quantitatively assessed. In addition, the growth of LM in cooked meat products, from retail to consumption, was also taken into consideration in the assessment.
    Results  In Chengdu, the numbers of potential cases of listeriosis caused by consumption of prepackaged, non-vacuum sealed, refrigerated ready-to-eat meat products were 0.01 (95% confidence interval CI: 0-1.71 × 10－2) per year per million in healthy individuals aged 5- < 65 years old, 0.22 (95% CI: 0-2.67 × 10－1) in healthy individuals aged 65 and above, and 2.88 (95% CI: 3.85 × 10－8-4.35) in pregnant women. According to the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial pollution level of LM in the retail stage was the most important factor affecting the prevalence (R = 0.25), followed by retail temperature (R = 0.08), retail time (R = 0.07), and amount of consumption per meal (R = 0.07).
    Conclusions  For pre-packaged, non-vacuum sealed, cooked meat products, the most important measure to reduce the prevalence of listeriosis is to control the initial contamination level, which requires food processing plants to regularly clean and strictly disinfect the processing environment and equipment to minimize LM contamination at the source. Retail delicatessens should strictly maintain a storage temperature below 5.0 ℃ and strictly adhere to product shelf-life recommendations. As for consumers, they should consume these meat products as soon as possible after purchase or store them under refrigerated conditions and shorten the storage time. Pregnant women should thoroughly heat the meat products before eating to reduce the risk of listeriosis.

     

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