Comparison of Flu Outbreak Reporting Standards Based on Transmission Dynamics Model

Objective To compare the current two flu outbreak reporting standards for the purpose of better prevention and control of flu outbreaks. Methods A susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model without interventions was set up first, followed by a model with interventions based on real situation. Simulated interventions were developed based on the two reporting standards, and evaluated by estimated duration of outbreaks, cumulative new cases, cumulative morbidity rates, decline in percentage of morbidity rates, and cumulative secondary cases. Results The basic reproductive number of the outbreak was estimated as 8.2. The simulation produced similar results as the real situation. The effect of interventions based on reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) was better than that of interventions based on reporting standard two (30 accumulated new cases in a week). Conclusion The reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) is more effective for prevention and control of flu outbreaks.