Influence of Meteorological Factors on HFMD and Construction of Prediction Model in Sichuan Province

  Objective  To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Sichuan Province from 2013 to 2019. To study the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD and construct a prediction model.

  Methods  The HMFD surveillance data and meteorological data from 2013 to 2019 in Sichuan Province were collected through the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorological data Network. Spearman correlation was used to analyze the relationship between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. Multiple regression model and support vector regression (SVR) model were used to construct HFMD incidence prediction models respectively.

  Results  A total of 615 840 cases of HFMD and 81 deaths were reported from 2013 to 2019. The average annual incidence rate was 107.31/10⁵, and the mortality rate was 0.16/10⁶. Spearman correlation analysis showed that the monthly incidence rate of HFMD was correlated with monthly average relative humidity (r=0.342), monthly average temperature (r=0.284), monthly average water vapor pressure (r=0.304) and monthly average days of precipitation (r=0.259). The prediction effect of the SVR model (R²=0.836) was better than the multiple regression model (R²=0.375). The SVR model provided a good fit to the monthly incidence of HFMD from 2013 to 2018, and can predict the peak incidence of HFMD in 2019.

  Conclusion  Relative humidity has the greatest influence on the incidence of HFMD. The fitting value of SVR model is in good agreement with the actual value, which is valuable in predicting the incidence of HFMD in Sichuan Province.